Now that 2025 is well underway we thought it was a good time to share some of the various predictions, forecasts, and news posts that industry experts have published for the year.
2024 was a very interesting year for the global space industry. There were 263 orbital launches, an increase on the 224 launches that took place in 2023. Financial investment and company value growth also increased, although, as usual, this was far from uniform.
We also saw major changes at every level of the supply chain, with new sources of demand and supply coming on the market, and events in geopolitics, terrestrial industries, and other areas had an effect on the industry too.
Speculating on what could happen in the next 12 months with any specificity isn’t easy. 2025 will see a new US administration with potentially re-focussed priorities at NASA and for the largest national commercial market.
Conflicts around the world will also shape aspects of the industry, as could the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. And as space now impacts so many other sectors on Earth, changes in other fields could also have knock-on effects for space services beyond changing demand (e.g. drone tech, autonomous vehicles, navigation, mapping, blockchain and so on).
Every year a range of stakeholders put together overviews of predictions, ideas, and planned events for the next 12 months. And to help share these more widely with the satsearch community, we’ve put together a roundup of such resources on this page.
This list features links to the sources of each set of predictions along with one standout point from each (though every article is full of useful insights, and you should definitely check out the originals).
Let’s dive in!
What’s Happening in Space in 2025?
Author: Alex Thompson of The National Space Centre
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Perhaps the most exciting Moon mission this year may well be Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 (MK1). This pathfinder mission will demonstrate the capabilities of the MK1 as a cargo vehicle to provide “safe, reliable and affordable access to the lunar environment” for payload customers.
Lunar missions have certainly grown in scope, frequency, and ambition in recent years, despite some high-profile failures (both full and partial) and accessing the Moon seems more possible today than for many years. Though, with the potential re-focussing of US interests on Mars in the incoming Trump administration, due to Elon Musk’s high level of influence, it will be interesting to see what happens to lunar plans in 2025.
From new commercial Moon landers to asteroid investigations, expect a slate of exciting space missions in 2025
Author: Zhenbo Wang of The University of Tennessee, Knoxville on The Conversation
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The European Space Agency, or ESA, plans to conduct an orbital test flight of its Space Rider uncrewed spaceplane in the third quarter of 2025. Space Rider is a reusable spacecraft designed to carry out various scientific experiments in low Earth orbit.
The Space Rider mission is a really interesting one, being described on the ESA website as “Europe’s first reusable space transportation system.” There’s a lot of discussion about Europe’s place in the global space industry today, particularly in comparison to the US and China. A successful spaceplane system could form a key part of the narrative that ESA, EU policy-makers, and the commercial sector are building for the industry.
Seraphim SpaceTech Predictions for 2025
Author: Leah Martin of Seraphim Space
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With SpaceX, AST Space Mobile, and Skylo all launching direct-to-device offerings in partnership with major telecoms operators and smartphone vendors, 2025 will be the year consumers start to understand the unique capabilities that direct-to-device satcoms offer.
Seraphim’s belief that direct-to-device satellite connectivity will hit the mainstream in 2025 is an exciting prospect for the industry. Satellite manufacturers and operators can often face challenges explaining the breadth of value they can offer to terrestrial end-users, as many solutions are deeply integrated into other data systems. But direct connectivity from space is a simpler prospect and, if it can compete with Earth-based options in terms of performance, reliability, and cost, has a huge potential market.
2025 Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook
Authors: Lindsey Berckman, Ajay Chavali, Kate Hardin, Matt Sloane, and Tarun Dronamraju of Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials
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Companies in sectors from supply chain management to transportation are likely to continue to lean on PNT technologies for location-based services.
The article states that the positioning, navigating, and timing (PNT) market was valued at US$209 billion in 2023 (in terms of revenues), referencing a Payload Space piece on the topic. It’s no secret that PNT services have become increasingly important to the global economy. For example, the UK Space Agency estimates the cost to the UK economy of a loss of space-based PNT services to be around £1 billion per day.
At satsearch we’ve supported a number of teams working on PNT missions in the last few years and we’re looking forward to helping many more in 2025. In particular, supply chain resiliency is going to be a key challenge for PNT satellite manufacturers, and can become a real strategic advantage. By optimizing procurement for the full bill of materials (BOM) and scanning the supply chain horizon for new options coming to market, PNT suppliers can ensure they stay ahead and maximize their opportunities in the industry. Get in touch today if you’d like to talk about this!
To the moon, an asteroid and beyond: The biggest space missions ahead in 2025
Author: Denise Chow of NBC News
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A California-based startup called Vast is expected to launch a first-of-its-kind commercial space station into orbit this year. The private outpost, dubbed Haven-1, is slated to launch no earlier than August aboard a SpaceX rocket.
We’ve written about Vast before in our overview of the commercial space station sector, and we’ll be watching the Haven-1 mission with interest. Ensuring a consistent human presence in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is a very important objective for the industry and we’re hoping to see some great progress in this area in 2025.
Predictions for the space industry in 2025 [PDF]
Author: Christopher Baugh of Analysys Mason
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Several in-orbit refuelling missions are scheduled to launch next year, after already passing significant engineering milestones. The market awaits the following demonstrations of refuelling assets in space: SpaceX’s Starship-to-Starship refuelling test, the US government’s Tetra-5 mission to refuel three GEO satellites and SpaceLogistics’ plan to launch its Mission Robotic Vehicle.
Christopher also believes that one or more of these missions have a good chance of success due to the backers involved. And should that occur, we may see the birth of a new service, which has been in development for some time. There are a number of smaller private companies in this area too, so it would be great to see some further heritage gained.
UKspace Policy Predictions for 2025
Author: Stephanie Ayres of UKspace
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The political fragmentation being witnessed in Europe is likely to compound the technical and corporate fragmentation that already exists. As the US becomes more agile and more coherent in its determination to outpace the rest of the world in the space race, Europe will face new challenges.
National politics has always shaped the space industry to an extent. And although in the past we’ve seen a big shift from government run programs to government-supported and agency-fostered commercial capabilities; when it comes to areas such as defense and surveillance, the end customer reigns supreme.
It is interesting that UKSpace has described the commercial competition between the US and the rest of the world as ‘the space race’ too – and that is certainly the mentality that ambitious companies need to have to make it big in the emerging international business climate.
12 Tech Predictions For 2025 That Will Shape Our Future
Author: Mark Minevich on Forbes
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Asteroid mining will be a concept that turns into reality as firms such as AstroForge aim to launch a compact refinery into space, designed to extract minerals from asteroids and transport only the precious metals back to Earth. Improvements in technology will keep making space tourism easier, allowing the ultra-elite to go to space.
Discussions about asteroid mining can sometimes be contentious inside the space industry, and I don’t see that changing in 2025. But from the global supply chain perspective, the enabling technologies that are required, and iteratively proven in space, can have a range of knock-on benefits. Besides which, the very concept of in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) in space can capture the imagination so well, that if a company can demonstrate even a small amount of momentum in this area, it could gain widespread attention and, possibly, raise significant capital.
Coolest space missions coming in 2025
Author: Sharmila Kuthunur on Live Science
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NASA’s two Mars-bound satellites, which were designed at the University of California, Berkeley, will study how and when the Red Planet lost its atmosphere. They are now slated to launch no earlier than spring 2025, following a delay of the mission’s original October 2024 launch.
Mars exploration missions are vital for both increasing our understanding of the solar system (an important goal in itself) and blazing a trail for commercial projects. The number and variety of technologies required to support human habitation on the red planet is staggering, and so any mission that adds to our store of knowledge about the environment will be watched carefully by the companies with such ambitions.
Will 2025 Change Everything? Top 11 Space and Tech Predictions for Next Year
Author: Orbital Today
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The UK is poised for significant milestones in 2025, as a few space companies tend to perform first launches. Companies like Reaction Engines will push advancements in aerospace technology, Skyora aims to launch its rocket from the UK spaceport, and the Sutherland Spaceport is expected to conduct more commercial satellite launches. Additionally, the UK government will strengthen its green initiatives, including ambitious renewable energy projects.
Space launch facilities in the UK have been in development for several years, with the Virgin Orbit Start Me Up mission in 2023 being the most significant milestone so far. The UK government has supported a number of proposed spaceports, to different extents, around the country, but the facilities that can attract consistent commercial customers are the ones with the best chance to thrive in the industry.
2025 Expectations: What to Watch for in the Space Industry
Author: Meagan Murphy Crawford of SpaceFund
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Space Exits: Reduced regulations around M&A activity and a more friendly IPO environment could lead to a flurry of space exits. Many stellar space companies are mature enough to exit, and early investors are anxious to return capital to their LPs, so reduced anti-trust regulations and increased investment in the US public markets should encourage space companies to look at exit options. Additionally, Cathie Wood’s ARK Space ETF is making public-market space investing more mainstream and approachable, so there may be significant market demand for these stocks.
Predicting exits and M&A activity in space is notoriously difficult. Companies exist in such a challenging climate, driven by the hazardous space environment itself, and the margins for error and success can be razor thin.
But there’s no doubt that the appetite is there, in both the public and private markets, for a level of market consolidation and exit activity. As always, such events are company-dependent of course; business fundamentals must be strong and demand signals solid to succeed. Businesses also need to tell stories that match their ambitions, while backing it up with concrete evidence of technical development.
Predictions for this year’s space economy and last year’s record-breaking climate data
Author: Marian Summerall and Brendan Byrne of Central Florida Public Media
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This year, SpaceX plans to launch its massive Starship rocket once again and Blue Origin is launching its first mission of New Glenn.
These two missions and several other planned launches could potentially change the space industry completely and lay the groundwork to send humans and critical hardware to the moon and mars.
Launch activity will certainly be an important driver and bellwether of the space industry in 2025, as it is every year. Activity in this area has certainly ramped up in recent quarters and there is a realistic prospect of greater competition developing in the commercial launch sector. However, space is, of course, hard, and should newer providers fail and/or Starship make major leaps forward, the dominance of SpaceX may continue.
